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NFL Update : 2009 AFC North Preview And Projection - NFL news, NFL Update, Scores, Schedule , Predictions

 

PITTSBURGH: There are two burning questions on everyone's mind when the subject of the Black and Gold crops up, 1). will Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger emerge unscathed from a civil suit filed alleging rape and 2). will the allegations of rape against Roethlisberger prove to be too big of a distraction for the Steelers as a team with regard to their quest of winning back-to-back Super Bowls? The feeling here is that Pittsburgh as a team will rally around Roethlisberger as the allegations will actually keep the team focused on the here and now instead of the glory they achieved last year in capturing the Lombardi trophy for a franchise sixth time.

Entering the 2008 season Pittsburgh had the toughest schedule of any team in the past thirty plus years of NFL action and yet they overcame and won the Super Bowl, for the 2009 season the Steelers have the 29th toughest schedule which is based on this years' slate of opponents winning percentage (.434) from last season. Pittsburgh's defense finished up with the #1 ranking in almost every meaningful category last year and as a team they return virtually their entire roster, the knock on the Steelers last season was their week offensive line play which allowed 49 QB take downs during the regular season which is an average of 3.06 per game, however, that same line gelled during the playoffs and Super Bowl in allowing only five sacks total for an average of 1.67 per game. Projected record 12-4.

***Look to play ON Pittsburgh in their season opening game at home against the visiting Titans, the Steelers are listed as a 5 pt home favorite at the time of this writing and for good reason as they are revenge minded against a Tennessee team that shell-lacked them 14-31 last year. It's nice to know the Titans lost their defensive mastermind Jim Schwartz who is now the headman in Detroit which means the Titans have some adapting to do, but it's even nicer to know that the Steelers are 6-0 straight up and 5-1 ATS in their last six season opening games which includes a 34-7 home win and cover over Tennessee as a seven pt home favorite to open the 2005 season.

BALTIMORE: The Ravens made it all the way to the AFC Championship game with a rookie QB under center (Joe Flacco) and a rookie skipper (John Harbaugh) manning the sidelines last year, thus the question, can they repeat that kind of success for the 2009 season? The Vegas odds makers say no with regard to installing the Ravens as a 19-1 dog to win the Super Bowl and as a 12-1 dog to win the AFC Championship game and I agree with them. A review of Baltimore's schedule results from last year reveals that the Ravens posted a mark of 2-5 straight up and 3-4 ATS when stepping up in class during the regular season against playoff bound teams which doesn't bode well for Baltimore which lost their defensive mastermind Rex Ryan who was hired to lead the Jets.

The Ravens have tough road games at San Diego, at New England, at Minnesota, at Green Bay and at Pittsburgh and will have tough tests at home against the likes of Denver, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and Chicago, that's a total of nine tough games on their schedule, if the Ravens lose five of those affairs which is quite conceivable and also lose two of the remaining seven games on their schedule they would end the regular season with a mark of 9-7. If we were to keep in mind that the Ravens lost their defensive signal caller, lost all star LB Bart Scott, are getting really long in the tooth on defense and had a so-so draft, then it's really not so big of a stretch to say Baltimore will regress this year, remember that this same team posted a mark of 13-4 in 2006 only to fall off the following season to 5-11. Projected record 9-7.

***Look to play AGAINST Baltimore on September 27th when divisional rival Cleveland visits the Ravens, Baltimore will be entering that game fresh off a trip to the left coast against San Diego and may get caught looking ahead to a trip to New England after facing the doormat Brownies, Joe Public will be all over the Ravens in this affair meaning that the point spread will be inflated and it certainly doesn't hurt to know that Cleveland has covered two of their last three visits to Baltimore.

CINCINNATI: This will be a make it or break it year for HC Marvin Lewis after posting three straight non winning seasons, fortunately for Marvin the Bengals had a fantastic draft as well as many key free agent acquisitions which should boost their talent pool. Cincinnati had way more than their fair share of injuries last season, which when coupled with having the NFL's third toughest schedule, explains a big part of the puzzle as to why they only posted a mark of 4-11-1 straight up and 7-9 ATS.

The Bengals closed out last season by winning the final three games on their slate which should give them some semblance of motivation and momentum heading into this new season. While it's true that the Bengals were an all round bad team last season, its equally true that Cincinnati's major malfunction last year was on offense with regard to finishing 29th in rushing yards, 31st in passing yards and 32nd in points scored. To correct this problem the Bengals drafted a huge offensive left tackle (Andre Smith) with the NFL's sixth overall pick and signed two free agent running backs, that coupled with a now healthy QB Carson Palmer should equate to a better offense which in turn should take some pressure off the defense. Projected record 8-8.

***Look to play AGAINST Cincinnati on September 27th when Pittsburgh comes to town, some teams simply have some other teams' proverbial number and such is the case between these two divisional rivals as the Steelers are 8-2 straight up and ATS in their last 10 games against the Bungles, however, a deeper look-see reveals that the Steelers are a perfect 8-0 straight up and ATS in their last 8 games played at Cincinnati.

CLEVELAND: After four years of painfully bad football and a combined mark of 24-40 the Brownie brass finally got rid of HC Romeo Crennel, unfortunately for the Brownie faithful the Cleveland higher ups chose to bring in former Jet HC Eric Mangini as Crennel's replacement. In the big picture Mangini was not really ready for the Jet job and it showed as evidenced by his three year record of 23-26 straight up and 24-24-1 ATS. Who knows, maybe Mangini will do a good job with this rag tag Brownie team, however, the thought process here is that Mangini simply does not have the experience to do an almost complete rebuild which is what is sorely needed.

The Browns have a lot to fix if they want to post a winning season for 2009, topping the list will be the burning question of who will be under center (Brady Quinn or Derek Anderson) to run the offense and who will do the blocking for a Brownie offense that didn't score an offensive TD in their final six outings last year and finished the 2008 season ranked 31st overall in the league on offense. Cleveland was even somewhat worse on defense last year as evidenced by ranking 29th in rushing yards allowed, 29th in yards per pass allowed, 26th in total yards allowed per game, and 30th in QB take downs. Projected record 5-11.

***Look to play ON Cleveland September 27th when they travel to Baltimore to take on their hated divisional rival Ravens, Baltimore will be entering that game fresh off a trip to the left coast against San Diego and may get caught looking ahead to a trip to New England following this contest against the Brownies, it's a safe bet that Joe Public will be all over the Ravens in this affair meaning that the point spread will be inflated and it certainly doesn't hurt to know that Cleveland has covered two of their last three visits to Baltimore.

By Jim Campbell of http://www.footballforecastor.com

Jim Campbell runs http://www.FootballForecastor.com which has been an internet based sports handicapping service since 1997, you will be hard pressed to find another handicapper that has had the kind of success Jim has had, over the past twelve years he has maintained one of the very best winning percentages of any sports handicapping service


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