The NFL draft is quickly approaching and being the
fantasy sports dork I am, I honestly can't wait. Each year is like a
ritual for me...a constant in my life if you will. I wake-up, walk the
dog, drink my coffee, read the morning news, spend some quality time
with my girlfriend and then park my butt in front of the TV for about
12 hours of the NFL draft. It does run a distant second to any fantasy
baseball or fantasy football draft, but nonetheless it's still very
exciting.
Is your favorite team going to get the guy you want?
Are there going to be any big time trades? Which guy is gonna be the
next big star in the NFL? Are the Jets inevitably going to screw-up the
6th overall selection? With all of the recent free agent movement, the
first round is really beginning to take shape and this year's draft
class is looking like it could be a great one.
There are several
offensive and defensive players who could have an immediate impact in
the 2008 fantasy football season. Studly running backs like Darren
McFadden, physical beast Jonathan Stewart and Rashard Mendenhall could
all impress their rookie season. Wideouts like Desean Jackson and Limas
Sweed could also put up solid numbers. Not to mention, there are a
boatload of IDP who could be instant fantasy sports studs like Patrick
Willis was in 2007.
Here's how we think the top ten shapes out. Check back later this week to see picks 11 - 20.
2008 NFL 1st Round Mock v 1.1 (Picks 1-10)
1) Miami Dolphins
Matt Ryan - QB - Boston College
I'm
still not convinced that the Dolphins won't end-up trading this pick.
But if they don't, I've got to believe that they'll take Ryan. He's the
best QB in the draft and is the closest thing to NFL ready that there
is. Parcells has proven that he's not scared to select a QB #1 overall
when he took Drew Bledsoe with the #1 overall pick in 1993 with the New
England Patriots.
Alternatives: Jake Long, Chris Long, Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis, Vernon Gholston
Fantasy
Impact: Keep in mind that almost every single QB struggles in their
first full season in the NFL and it usually takes at least a year for
them to adjust. He'd be no better than a #2 QB in 2008, but could be a
#1 as early as 2009. In seasonal leagues he's not worth drafting as
anything more than a flier, but he's worth a 1st round pick in all
dynasty leagues based upon his potential.
2) St. Louis Rams
Jake Long - OT - Michigan
The
Rams are built around Marc Bulger getting the ball into the hands of
his playmakers, Torry Holt and Steven Jackson. The offensive line was
atrocious last year and Orlando Pace isn't getting any younger or
healthier for that matter. Without a decent offensive line, there's no
way Bulger can get his playmakers the ball. Jake Long is the consensus
#1 OL in the draft and he's got to be the pick here. Glenn Dorsey will
be difficult to pass-up, but they've got to get better and younger on
the O-line.
Alternatives: Chris Long, Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis, Vernon Gholston
Fantasy Impact: Long would instantly upgrade Marc Bulger's and Steven Jackson's probability for success in 2008.
3) Atlanta Falcons
Chris Long - DE - Virginia
Normally
this pick would easily be Darren McFadden. But the Falcons signed
Michael Turner and still have Jerious Norwood, so I doubt they'll take
a RB here. With Matt Ryan and Jake Long already off the board, I would
expect Atlanta to heavily shop the pick and try to trade down. There's
no secret that Jimmy Jones and the Dallas Cowboys covet Darren McFadden
and have the ammo to make a trade to move up and snag him. Atlanta
could use a lot of help and two first round picks would be huge. If
they're unable to make a trade, the Falcons will take the best player
available in Chris Long. Long had a great career at Virginia and is
arguably the best defensive player in the draft. He's physical, smart,
talented and has a motor to go with it. He'll be a great addition to
whatever team gets him.
Alternatives: Darren McFadden, Glenn Dorsey, Sedrick Ellis, Vernon Gholston
Fantasy
Impact: Long will eventually be an impact player in the NFL. However, a
lot of what Long will bring to the table might not show-up in the stat
sheet. There's now way he'll put up the monster stats that Patrick
Willis did as a rookie, but he'll be a nice sleeper pick in the late
rounds for IDP leagues.
4) Oakland Raiders
Glenn Dorsey - DT - LSU
If
Al Davis has no clue what he's doing, then I certainly don't either.
Darren McFadden is the most electric player in the draft and he'll be
very difficult to pass on. But the Raiders already have Justin Fargas,
Dominic Rhodes, Lamont Jordan and Michael Bush at the position and they
really need help on the defensive line with Warren Sapp retiring. I
think they'll eventually come to their senses and take Dorsey. He's an
impact player who can defend the run and put pressure on the
quarterback. That's a rare combination for a DT. Normally this guy
would be the first player taken in the draft, but he's gonna slip to
the Raiders at pick 4 because of some recent injury concerns.
Alternatives: Darren McFadden, Chris Long, Sedrick Ellis, Vernon Gholston
Fantasy
Impact: Dorsey was the consensus #1 pick a month ago before the injury
concerns and for good reason...he's a beast. Much like QB's, DT's don't
usually put up monster stats their rookie season even if they're stars
in the making. Dorsey will probably end-up with stats around 35 TK - 4
Sacks - 1 FF.
5) Kansas City Chiefs
Sedrick Ellis - DT - USC
The
Chiefs need help everywhere on the roster. Their offensive line has
gone from one of the best in the league to below average. Jake Long
would be the pick here but he's already taken. They could reach for a
guy like Clady, but there's too much top talent still on the board to
pass up. Ellis hasn't been hyped like Dorsey and isn't as sexy of a
pick, but the guy can flat out play. He had the best showing at the
Senior Bowl for any defensive lineman and could wind-up being the best
of the bunch.
Alternatives: Darren McFadden, Vernon Gholston, Ryan Clady
Fantasy
Impact: Ellis will bolster a defense on the rise and should put-up
respectable stats his rookie season. Expect 38 TK - 3 Sacks - 1 FF.
6) New York Jets
Darren McFadden - RB - Arkansas
There's
only one team in the league that can royally screw-up this
pick...J-E-T-S-JETS! JETS! JETS! Call me crazy, but somehow I think the
Jets will actually get it right this time. They've made a bunch of
off-season moves to bolster their offensive line and fill in gaps on
the defense. All of which I believe was done so that they could put
themselves in a position to take the best player available come draft
day. McFadden is the most electrifying player in the draft and is
comparable to last year's rookie phenom, Adrian Peterson. He's
physical, fast and is a game-changing player. This kid will be a
fantasy sports star in New York. With DMC still on the board at pick
#6, the Jets will be ecstatic and take him faster than you can say
Mangenious.
Alternatives: Vernon Gholston, Sedrick Ellis, Leodis Mckelvin, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
Fantasy
Impact: McFadden will have an immediate impact in the NFL and should be
the first player taken in Dynasty league formats. He'll most likely
have to split reps with Thomas Jones, but so did Adrian Peterson and
Chester Taylor and you see how that ended-up. McFadden is capable of
putting up 1,100+ yards and 10 TD's his rookie season and could easily
be a solid #2 / possible low-end #1 RB in all formats.
7) New England Patriots
Vernon Gholston - DE / LB - Ohio State
It's
hard to believe you can say this about a team who went 18-1, but they
need some work on the defensive side of the ball. They lost All Pro CB
Asante Samuel, CB Randall Gay and their linebackers aren't getting any
younger. Normally I'd say this pick would be for a corner like Leodis
McKelvin, Mike Jenkins or Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, but LB Vernon
Gholston is a freak of nature and will seamlessly fit right into the
Pats 3-4 scheme.
Alternatives: Leodis McKelvin, Mike Jenkins, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
Fantasy
Impact: Gholston reminds me a lot of Shawne Merriman and he'll have an
immediate impact in the NFL. He should be able to post stats his rookie
year of 55 TK - 8+ Sacks - 2 FF. He's a star in the making.
8) Baltimore Ravens
Ryan Clady - OL - Boise St.
This
pick solely depends on the status of Jonathan Ogden, as there's been
speculation that the All World OT may retire. If he does, the pick has
to be an offensive lineman and Clady is the best OT still on the board.
If they don't go with a lineman, look for them to reach a little bit
and grab CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.
Alternatives: Leodis McKelvin, Mike Jenkins, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Brian Brohm
Fantasy
Impact: Clady will be taking over for one of the best OT ever to play.
His addition can only help Willis McGahee and the rest of the Ravens
offense.
9) Cincinnati Bengals
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie - CB - Tennessee St.
How
long have the Bengals been desperate for help on D? I thought when they
brought in Marvin Lewis that he would change all of that, but he
hasn't. And so in a desperate attempt to land a possible shut down
corner, the Bengals buy into the hype and draft Cromartie. Granted, the
division I-AA star showed well at the Senior Bowl and was able to play
with the big boys. But a division I-AA guy in the top ten? I hope that
Marvin knows what he's doing or this could be the last straw for him.
Alternatives: Leodis McKelvin, Mike Jenkins, Keith Rivers
Fantasy
Impact: If he's for real, he could put-up nice stats as a rookie. A
season with 30 tackles and 3 picks is certainly possible.
10) New Orleans Saints
Keith Rivers - LB - USC
This
pick is such a wildcard for me. I could see the Saints going with
several different players...definitely a defensive player though. In
the end, I think they'll go with Rivers because he could start
immediately. He's a hard worker with a non-stop motor and has played
against top competition at USC.
Alternatives: Leodis McKelvin, Mike Jenkins, Aqib Talib, Phillip Merling
Fantasy Impact: Should be considered no more than a late round flier in IDP leagues.